Investments in Chemical Industry Soared Against The Trend
Petrochemical industry is still running at a low level, but the impulse of capital to invest in chemical industry remains unchanged.
"From January to July, the investment in fixed assets in China's petrochemical industry was 515.08 billion yuan, up 13.51% year-on-year, down 21.98 percentage points from the same period last year (35.49%). However, the chemical industry investment growth is still very strong, compared with 259.48 billion yuan in the same period last year, an increase of 29.71%, to 336.57 billion yuan.
It is worth noting that although the production capacity of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, basic chemical raw materials, rubber (information, market) products and many other large-scale chemical products in China is relatively excessive, it needs to rely on the international market to balance demand, but investment growth is still relatively fast.
Among them, the growth rate of investment in inorganic acids, fertilizers, pesticides and rubber products in January-July was 43.37%, 36.23%, 40.66% and 38.18%, respectively. The growth rate of phosphate fertilizer industry was 97.12%, which was 4.18 billion yuan, compared with 2.12 billion yuan in the same period last year.
Behind the soaring adverse trend of chemical industry investment, there are similar related plans in different provinces.
Feng Shiliang pointed out that after the State Council promulgated the "Petrochemical Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan", from more than a dozen provinces and municipalities that have officially announced the "Revitalization Plan" of the region, in the three-year revitalization plan, 12 million tons have been planned for methanol only, 6 million tons for some provinces, and 8 million tons for urea and 2 provinces for PVC. Three million tons were planned for each province, two million tons for each province, and four million tons for some soda provinces.
"According to this plan, the problem of relative overcapacity of some products in the future can not be solved, but will be further aggravated." Feng Shiliang said.
Although capital has been pouring in, the domestic chemical industry is still not out of the dilemma.
According to the analysis report of China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, from January to July, the output value of the chemical industry fell by 0.2% year-on-year, but still failed to get out of the situation of negative growth as expected, and the rate of stabilization and recovery was relatively slow.
In fact, since July, the operation trend of three major industries, namely, oil and gas exploitation, oil refining and chemical industry, has been obviously differentiated.
In contrast, in July, the output of oil and gas exploitation and refining industry maintained a steady increase trend month by month since the first half of the year, while the output of chemical industry showed a significant decline. In the same month, the total industrial output value of oil and gas extraction industry was 68.85 billion yuan, an increase of 15.97% annually; the total industrial output value of refinery industry was 157.48 billion yuan, an increase of 4.27% annually; and that of chemical industry was 33.16 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6% annually for the first time since this year.
Feng Shiliang believes that the differentiation of production and price trends is the main reason for the differentiation of output value trends in the three major industries.
"From the production point of view, in July, the production of energy products such as crude oil and refined oil increased in an all-round way, while the production of chemical products was greatly affected by seasonal factors, and the output of most products decreased. As most chemical enterprises entered the maintenance period in July, the output of most chemical products declined in July. Compared with June, the output of pesticides, sulphuric acid and methanol decreased by 19.53%, 12.12% and 7.77%, respectively. Only a few products such as ethylene, caustic soda, polyethylene and polypropylene increased. Feng pointed out.
In addition, from the price point of view, the prices of domestic crude oil, refined oil and its sub-products rose annually in July due to the impact of the rise in international oil prices and the rise in domestic refined oil prices. Of the 1046 price indices of chemical products, only 39% rose in the ring-to-ring ratio, and more than 60% of the products whose ring-to-ring prices fell or remained unchanged.